Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-05T00:00:22

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been at persistently high levels for a number of days, with peak observed values of 38700 pfu at 02/1610 UTC. The 4th Oct saw a lower peak of 25400 pfu at 04/1705UTC. Peak flux values will vary at around these levels at first, but should show a gradual decline by day 3 and 4 (7th and 8th). Despite this mainly high values will persist. 

The associated observed 24 hour fluence has been Very Active since 30/2100 UTC, peaking 02/2100 UTC at 1.49e9 integrated pfu. With flux levels expected to fall, a lowering trend is anticipated to commence, likely falling below the Very Active threshold on day 2 (6th) or day 3(7th), but staying above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout. This downward trend is supported by REFM which is easing values too quickly.