MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-06T00:02:00
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has shown a more marked decline in the last 24 hours. This is mirrored by the 24-hour integrated fluence, which although still at Active levels, has decreased significantly, with the most recent observation 1.37e8 integrated pfu. The REFM and Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast Model offer good overall guidance with a continuation of the gradual downward trend, although lower confidence for absolute forecast values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-06T00:02:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |