MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-02-05T00:23:15
The fast wind from Coronal Hole 66 may increase electron fluxes a little during the next few days, but currently the flux and fluence are low (fluence 1.34e6 at 04/2100UTC) so they have a long way to climb to get close to the 1e8 threshold. The fluence on the previous rotation, when the fast wind was stronger at Earth than expected this time, did not breach the threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-02-05T00:23:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |