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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-29T00:07:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are likely to persist at generally low to moderate levels. Although confidence in CH65’s capabilities is currently low, it is difficult to envisage any significant increase in electron populations at geosynchronous Earth orbit from such a tenuous coronal hole. Fluence levels are currently not expected to breach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and this would only occur in the wake of any influence of CH65, leading to a delayed and weak climb in probabilities through the coming four days.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-01-29T00:07:07
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 5% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%