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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-30T00:02:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain at mainly background to moderate levels for the next 4 days. Flux levels may increase if any connection is made to coronal hole 65 over the next couple of days, but as this is a weak and diffuse feature, any increase is likely to be minor, perhaps allowing flux levels to briefly reach high levels (greater than 1000pfu) at peaks of the diurnal cycle.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence levels are most likely to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, though may show a slow rising trend later in the forecast period if any increase in flux levels is observed.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-01-30T00:02:53
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 5% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%