Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-02-06T00:23:26

The slightly elevated solar winds from coronal hole 66 may increase the high energy electron fluxes a little during the next few days, but levels are still most likely to remain below the high threshold (1000pfu). Currently, compression from the proximity of the main jet of CH66's fast wind (shooting north over the top of the Earth) is evident at GOES15 with no more than 10pfu being detected through the last 24 hours. This has really reduced the 24-hour total fluence at GEO, totalling 2.77e5 pfu.

The corresponding 24 hour fluence is currently around 1e6 integrated pfu, well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), so while some rise in fluence is expected in response to rising flux levels, it is unlikely to reach the Active threshold during the forecast period.