MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-07T00:22:14
The high energy electron fluence (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain below the Active threshold with insufficient solar wind speeds for electron capture. The REFM model reflects this with low observed fluence and low fluence forecast through the period. Once the fast wind from CH56/57 becomes established the flux may start to increase on Day 3 or Day 4 (9th or 10th January).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-07T00:22:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |