MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-06T00:06:57
The high energy electron fluence (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain below the Active threshold with insufficient solar wind speeds. The REFM persistence model shows levels higher on the previous rotation than the current cycle, and a weakening forecast trend. The forecast model doesn't indicate a rise in the forecast period, which combined suggests that an increase to Active levels is very unlikely.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-06T00:06:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |