MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-31T00:20:20
With no significant increases in solar wind speeds expected over the next four days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain at mainly background to moderate levels. Flux levels may increase if any connection is made to coronal hole 65 over the next couple of days, but as this is a weak and diffuse feature, any increase is likely to be minor.
The Corresponding 24-hour fluence levels are most likely to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-31T00:20:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |