Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-01T00:37:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to be at background to moderate levels to start the period, with electron re-distribution likely on day 1 (1st Jan) due to increased geomagnetic activity as earth connects with a coronal hole high speed stream. Electron counts are then expected to increase from Day 2 (2nd Jan) as high speed stream effects begin to wane and geomagnetic activity reduces.

The corresponding high energy electron fluence is forecast to remain below the active threshold (1e8 pfu integrated flux) on day 1, but with an increasing chance of rising above thereafter, and likely to breach the threshold on Day 3 (3rd). The MOSWOC REFM model is currently considered to be giving misleading advice, forecasting fluence to remain well below the active threshold.