Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-02T00:11:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start the period at background levels, but electron counts are then expected to increase through today (2nd Jan). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold of 1e8pfu initially, but with an increasing chance of breaching the Active threshold from day 3 (4th Jan), which is the same timescale as during the previous rotation. The MOSWOC REFM model is also forecasting for the fluence to reach the Active threshold during day 3 (4th Jan), but is currently over-estimating the forecast fluence in comparison to the observed fluence.