MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-03T00:01:08
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start the period at background levels, but electron counts are then expected to increase through today (3rd Jan). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold of 1e8pfu for most of the period, but with an increasing chance of breaching the Active threshold by day 4 (6th Jan). The MOSWOC REFM model is forecasting for the fluence to reach the Active threshold during day 3 (5th Jan), but is currently over-estimating the forecast fluence in comparison to the observed fluence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-03T00:01:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |