Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-04T00:04:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is now forecast to remain below the Active threshold, although may peak near to 1000 pfu at times later in the period. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu, with now low risk of rising above the threshold. This is suggested by the output of the REFM model, which shows levels are unlikely to pass above the Active level. Although the persistence model shows a rise above on the previous solar cycle (27-days ago), the solar wind speed hasn't risen as high on this rotation which leads to a lower risk of rising above during this period.