MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-11T00:28:16
The 24-hour electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at background levels at present, but is slowly rising as a result of the recent high speed stream. It is however unlikely to reach the warning threshold (1000pfu) through the next four days.
The corresponding 24 hour fluence is also slowly rising, but unlikely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold given current forecasts from the REFM model and consideration of data from the previous rotation.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-11T00:28:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |