Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-18T00:16:43

With solar winds at background levels until late on day 2 (19th) or early on day 3 (20th), the flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background levels until day 3, when an increase in flux values is expected as the high speed stream from negative coronal hole 61 becomes established. However there is considerable uncertainty in this due to the different shape and size of the coronal hole from the previous rotation, meaning that persistence is not especially reliable. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on days 1 and 2 (18th and 19th), but with an increasing chance of rising above from day 3 as electron counts rise.