MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-19T00:58:22
The wake of the upcoming coronal hole 61 should see the greatest probability of Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence for some time. While unremarkable, the background populations at geostationary Earth orbit are greater now than at any time since 01 January, and the impending coronal hole is expected to be more potent than its recent forebears. Initial geomagnetic activity will suppress the high energy electrons, but towards the end of the period the chances of 24-hour integrated fluence breaching the Active threshold increases.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-19T00:58:22 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |