MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-09T00:27:26
The probability of Active electron fluence is expected to rise during the first half of the coming working week, although it is starting from a low base near 2e6 integrated pfu, a position it has held since 02 January. Given that the current high speed stream is expected to be limited in scope, probabilities peak at ‘Chance’ in the period. Persistence is not considered a good guide in this instance due to the dissimilarity of the ambient environment now and 27 days ago.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-09T00:27:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |