Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-16T00:16:19

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2 MeV) at geosynchronous orbit has been at very low background levels (around or below 10pfu) since 8th January. However, during today (15th) a gradual rising trend has begun following the current high speed stream arrival, with flux levels now just above the moderate (greater than 100 pfu) level. Flux levels are expected to continue to rise over the next few days, with moderate levels anticipated and perhaps diurnal peaks near or reaching high levels (greater than 1000 pfu). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is also now on a rising trend, and REFM models predict this to continue over the next couple of days, with fluence levels nearing, but perhaps not reaching, the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) by Day 3 (18th).