MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-15T00:17:00
Electron populations at geosynchronous orbit have been very low for some time now. The recent geomagnetic storm again reduced counts at GOES 15, at both <;2MeV and <;0.8MeV energies, and the recovery since displayed at the <;0.8MeV was barely present at <;2MeV, reaching <;10 electrons per cc per sr. While some further recovery is expected through Monday 15 January on 24-hour integrated counts, it is difficult to envisage a significant rise to worry the 1e8 Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-15T00:17:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |