Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-02-13T00:01:46

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background levels in the near-term, with less than one electron being detected per second at GOES 15 at present, giving very low background counts. The incoming CME is expected to buffet the van Allen belts on arrival, and by the time geomagnetic activity subsides, there is an increased chance of both flux and fluence reacting to the fast solar wind. With G1/G2 expected on day two (Wednesday 14 February and especially Thursday (day three), the resulting resurgence in electrons is only likely by the end of the period, Friday 16 February. This perhaps represents the highest probabilities of Active fluence for some time, although confidence is low given the cause is a transient feature rather than arising from persistence.