MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-01-24T00:29:18
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) has steadily increased over the last 24 hours. Flux levels are then likely to persist at moderate, occasionally high levels through the forecast period, mainly in response to diurnal cycles with the fluence levels still well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to show a gradual further rise over the forecast period, but more likely than not to remain below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-01-24T00:29:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |