MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-02-04T00:02:18
Any high speed stream resulting from a residual equatorial coronal hole is expected to be weak, and as such there is no real mechanism to significantly raise electron populations beyond Moderate at geosynchronous orbit in the period. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-02-04T00:02:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |