MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-02-12T00:14:08
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background levels, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The elevated solar wind speeds seen with the previous rotation have not materialised, and failed to raise the fluence above the active threshold on the previous rotation. This is reflected in the output of the REFM model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-02-12T00:14:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 2% | 1% |