MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-16T00:10:31
The high energy electron flux has risen to High levels during the diurnal maximum due to recent geomagnetic storming that took place on 12 Sep. Now with up to two further CME arrivals anticipated and up to two coronal hole fast wind arrivals in the period, any rise is expected to be brief and the high energy flux most likely to return to mainly Background levels.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level. The latest MOSWOC REFM output is currently showing a generally steady fluence forecast rise, however this isn't taking into account any CME impacts or possible coronal hole interactions in the coming days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-09-16T00:10:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |