Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-14T00:20:30

The high energy electron flux briefly rose to elevated levels, demonstrating that some charging occurred after the geomagnetic storming that took place on 12 Sep. However, with two further CME arrivals anticipated - first one on Day 1 (14 Sep) and the second one on Day 3 (16 Sep) - plus the potential onset of the high speed stream of CH68 and CH69 on Days 2 & 3 (15 & 16 Sep), any rise is expected to be brief and the high energy flux most likely to stay close to Background levels. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level. The latest MOSWOC REFM output is currently showing a rise, however this is misleading as it isn't taking into account any CME impacts or possible coronal hole interactions.