Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-22T00:01:41

High energy electron flux at GOES 15 has shown a day-on-day rise in the run up to the weekend, likely response to the unexpectedly fast solar wind from the now past coronal hole 59. This trend is felt likely to halt in the next 24 hours, and fall short of surpassing the 24-hour integrated Active fluence threshold of 1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1.

This means that the expected new trend in fluence levels is a soon-to-be-reached plateau followed by a gradual decline. The next feature that may impact on counts is thought to be coronal hole 60, which is due on day three, Monday 24 December. This is likely to result in an uptick in electron populations, but on balance probably again falling below the Active fluence threshold.