MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-02-09T00:03:15
The high energy electron flux at GEO is currently at very low background levels, generally below 10 pfu. Any slight elevation in the solar winds speed from weak coronal hole influences over the next few days may increase the high energy electron flux slightly, but levels are expected to remain below the high threshold (1000 pfu).
The corresponding 24 hour fluence is currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), so while some increase may occur over the next four days in response to any increased flux levels, it is unlikely to reach the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-02-09T00:03:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |