Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-09-19T12:05:18

Following the arrival of the CME late on 16 Sep, high energy electron flux levels at GEO were suppressed to Normal Background. A form of recovery is currently underway, but has perhaps been interrupted by the G1 interval in the past UTC night, itself possibly magnetotail reconnection-related. Despite any hiatus, current fluctuations peaking within Moderate should be replaced by a rising trend with peaks at High during diurnal maximum, perhaps before the end of the current UTC working week. Having said this, there is a slight chance that potential HSS influence into the period it may act to further suppress and delay the electron flux recovery. This lowers confidence in the forecast values into the period.

The forecast is therefore uncertain, but fluence values are anticipated to slowly rise into the period, with a chance of rising above the Active threshold greatest into the coming UTC weekend. MOSWOC REFM is not considered to be offering significantly useful guidance given the dominance of recent CME influences.