MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-06-08T00:16:56
The high energy electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to persist at mainly background levels, with diurnal moderate peaks. CH42/+ could become geoeffective during days 1 and 2 ( 8 and 9 June), with a possible rising trend in the second half of the period. The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active level, although may see a rising trend following any coronal hole influence. MOSWOC REFM output is viewed as generally good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2024-06-08T00:16:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |