Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-07T00:28:45

The GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux rose in response to the recent CME and fast wind arrivals, becoming mainly Moderate with a brief period of High observed. This has a chance of continuing to rise on day 1-2 ( 07-08 Jun) before the expected CME arrival early on 08 Jun brings a drop-out of the observed flux at GEO. Any subsequent recovery on day 3-4 (09-10 Jun) is low confidence, however further periods of High flux are likely.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to be rising at first, with a chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of day 1 and into day 2, as supported by REFM, although this is currently too quick with any rise and overestimating the expected fluence. Any Active fluence is likely to be short-lived however, due to the anticipated CME arrival on day 2, leading to fluence rapidly dropping back to below this level. REFM does not have any awareness of the CME forecast, so the model will become unreliable at this stage. Later day 3 and into day 4, the fluence is expect to rise again, bringing a slight chance of rising to the Active threshold.