MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-11T13:45:09
The recent rapid rise in electrons is thought to be due to the proton storming, therefore the GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is currently High. Further proton enhancements from flares and CME arrivals may affect the electron count. Uncertainties in CME impacts and proton events therefore make the spell of High electron flux very low confidence.
The associated 24hr fluence is due to rise above the Active threshold imminently, but with low confidence on longevity and credibility of this enhancement.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-11-11T13:45:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |