Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-10T12:03:21

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is currently Moderate, having recovered slightly at GEO after the recent CME arrivals. An erratic increase in the peak flux is possible day 1-2 (10-1 Nov), perhaps bringing a period of High at diurnal maximum. However, the expected CME arrival later day 2 (11 Nov) is then likely to bring a further drop out in the observed flux. Alongside uncertainties over how much charging has occurred due to the recent fast solar winds and geomagnetic activity, as well as any subsequent charging from this arrival, any further periods of High flux remain low confidence.  

The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold due to the potential for further CME influence. MOSWOC REFM and 27-day recurrence are considered to be overestimating any likely rise as they are not able to account for the expected CME influence.