Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-11T13:01:22

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux has been Moderate, briefly High, but saw a drop out in response the CME arrivals observed on 10 Dec. Flux is likely to remain subdued until after the onset of any fast winds from CH06/-, after which there is the increasing potential for more prolonged periods of High flux to occur. 

The associated 24 hour fluence will most likely persist below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a slight chance of rising above by the end of the period. This is supported by REFM, which is currently providing good guidance, however this model will not take account of any upcoming CME or coronal hole sourced enhancements.