Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-04T00:18:24

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 is showing a response to the recent fast wind enhancement, becoming predominately High on day 1 (04 May). With no further notable geomagnetic enhancements expected, the mainly High flux is then expected to persist, albeit with a decreasing confidence by the end of the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently above the Active threshold and is likely to see a further rise, similar to the forecast given by the 27-day persistence. The magnitude shown by MOSWOC REFM is likely to be overdone. Active fluence is expected through the period (04-07 May) with only a gradually fading confidence.