Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-04T00:15:06

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels have been at moderate to background levels over the past 24 hours. Overall little change is expected, although there is a slight chance of the electron flux diurnally reaching High levels during days 3 and 4 (6th and 7th Apr) due to the charging of the electron belts from the arrival of a HSS from CH27/-. The connection to CH27 is likely to occur today, having probably had a weak CIR arrival on the 3rd. The associated geomagnetic activity, with a G1/Minor geomagnetic storm interval 03/2100-2400 UTC, has helped suppress the electron belts away from GEO. This is likely to continue through days 1 and 2 (4th and 5th Apr).

The associated electron fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold through the forecast period. Therefore, the MOSWOC REFM model is through to be giving reasonable guidance, despite the model currently over-estimating the fluence levels.