Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-05-05T00:15:15

High energy electron flux as observed by GOES19 is showing a response to the recent CH44/- fast wind enhancement, being mostly High in the past 24 hours. With no further notable geomagnetic enhancements perhaps likely, mainly High flux may persist, albeit with a decreasing confidence by the end of the period, especially should CH46 manifest at Earth after midweek UTC.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently above the Active threshold and is likely to see a further rise, similar to the forecast given by 27-day persistence. Active fluence is expected through the period, with confidence falling away after midweek UTC. MOSWOC REFM's forecast has proven too over-exuberant and something nearer persistence is preferred, i.e. now tracking near (but above) Active, as opposed to Very Active.