Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-04-05T00:17:30

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels have been at moderate to background levels over the past 24 hours and is generally expected to remain so into the period. Electron flux may start to reach high levels at the diurnal maximum by Days 3 and 4 (07-08 Apr) as a consequence of potentially waning high speeds stream conditions. 

The associated electron fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold and is likely to remain below through the forecast period. MOSWOC REFM is thought to be giving reasonable guidance in the near term in keeping the forecast below Active. Confidence in model output reduces into the period, and recurrence would suggest a sharp rise in fluence by Day 3 (07 Apr). However the current coronal hole enhancement is expected to be significantly reduced compared to the previous rotation, with any associated electron response also expected to be less pronounced.