Forecaster summary - Issued 2024-01-07T13:33:53

The normal background level high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is expected to continue in the near-term in the absence of any fast wind enhancement and with the uncertainty tied to inbound CMEs. Should CH89/+ materialise into the new UTC working week, there may be an eventual slight increase observed, although both persistence and the expected strength of any fast wind suggest that this is perhaps only an eventual Slight Chance. This may be further dented by any second inbound CME, and the presence of this and the earlier transient are likely to render confidence in MOSWOC REFM relatively low throughout, even if its suggested trend happens to be the favoured scenario - as now.