MOSWOC summary of the high energy electron forecast

The text at the top of the page is the latest Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) forecast for high energy electrons at GEO. A summary is provided of the electron flux and fluence forecast over the next 4 days.

MOSWOC 4-day high energy electron event forecast table

The table on the right-hand side provides probabilistic forecasts for >2 MeV high energy electron fluence at GEO, over the next 4-days. The table shows the probability of exceedance of the Active (1x10⁸ cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1) and Very Active (1x10⁹ cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1) thresholds.

MOSWOC REFM plot

The Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM) predicts the >2 MeV 24h electron fluence at GEO for the next 3 days. REFM is run every 3h at the Met Office. X-axis shows the date and time. Y-axis is the daily >2 MeV electron fluence at GEO orbit. Approximately 30 days of past forecasts and observations are shown along with the forecast for the next 3 days. The green table shows the latest observed fluence at GOES, and the most recent fluence predictions for days 1-3.