Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-03-03T12:17:20

GOES19 high-energy electron flux (>2MeV) forecast carries low confidence given the dramatic and unexpected sudden drop in flux at GEO. So a decrease in fluence to below Active levels during day 2 (4 March) is now considered most likely, though there remains a chance that flux levels will bounce back to High levels, especially near the diurnal maximum, thus slowing the decline in fluence. Overall the most likely scenario is that fluence will fall below Active levels and remain just below. 

The next bout of geomagnetic activity may now not arrive until the end of day 4 (6 March). MOSWOC REFM is felt to be offering useful guidance at present, forecasting a decline below Active on day 2 (4 March).