Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-02T00:46:29

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mostly high for the past week or so, following the significant CME arrival on 19 Jan and the subsequent strong fast wind connection to CH17/-. This has resulted in a gradual building trend to flux values. With no CMEs anticipated, there are few sources of disturbance that could decease these values, and only a gradual declining trend is then anticipated. However, the arrival of HSS from CH19/- by Day 4 (05 Feb) may start to suppress electrons. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to persist at Active, but likely soon peaking, before seeing a slow decline. Given the level of flux required to reach Very Active, this is now considered unlikely, with MOSWOC REFM supporting a declining trend instead. However this is over-estimating the speed of any decline.