Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-09T00:33:18

GOES19 Electron flux is currently varying between Moderate and occasionally High levels, after the recent fast wind enhancement from CH21/-. Further enhancement remains possible on day 1 (09 Feb) before the onset of any fast wind from CH22/- may lead to observe values dropping to Background for a time. This is a small feature, with any solar wind enhancement expected to be limited, before easing day 2-4 (10-12 Feb). The observed flux is likely to increase again, as a result, however this is low confidence.

The associated 24-hour fluence is approaching the Active level, and likely rising above into day 1 (09 Feb), but with a chance of peaking just below.  MOSWOC REFM is currently suggesting below Active fluence, however this is currently underestimating the observed values. Fluence is then likely to fall below Active later day 1 (09 Feb) due to any drop out of flux, however this is low confidence.