Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-02T12:06:18

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mostly high for the past week or so, following the significant CME arrival on 19 Jan and the subsequent strong fast wind connection to CH17/-. This has resulted in persistently high flux values. In the short term there are few sources of disturbance that could significantly decease these values, and only a gradual declining trend is then anticipated. However, the arrival of HSS from CH19/- by Day 4 (05 Feb) may reduce electron levels, especially if combined with the possible glancing impact from the CME associated with the X8 flare.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to persist at Active, but likely to see a slow decline. Day 4 may see a more significant reduction due to the potential glancing CME mentioned above. MOSWOC REFM supports a declining trend instead, however this is likely to be over-estimating the speed of any decline in the short-term.