Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-01T00:36:00

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mostly high for the past week or so, following the significant CME arrival on 19 Jan and the subsequent strong fast wind connection to CH17/-. This has resulted in a gradual building trend to flux values, and these may see further slight increases on day 1 (01 Feb). With no CMEs or solar wind enhancements anticipated, there are few sources of disturbance that could decease these values, and only a gradual declining trend is then anticipated

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to persist at Active, but likely soon peaking, before seeing a slow decline. Given the level of flux required to reach Very Active, this is now considered unlikely, with MOSWOC REFM supporting a gradual declining trend instead. However this is likely over-estimating the speed of any decline.