MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-25T12:33:31
GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is currently at Moderate to High levels. Flux is expected to remain generally around this level until the end of day 3 (27 Jan) as solar wind declines, following recent CME and ongoing HSS impacts. The arrival of the HSS from CH17/- is expected to reduce flux to Background to Moderate levels.
The associated 24-hour fluence is above the High (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and expected to generally remain so through the period. Although fluence is expected to reduce on Day 4 (28 Jan) as a result of the HSS arrival.
MOSWOC REFM forecast remains low confidence following the CME arrival on the 19 Jan.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-01-25T12:33:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |