Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-02T12:32:05

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 is mainly varying between Moderate and High levels, on a normal diurnal cycle. Further periods of High flux are likely during the period, mainly on Days 1 and possibly Day 4 (02 and 05 Jan), with flux probably suppressed on Days 2 and 3 (03-04 Jan) due to anticipated CME effects. Confidence in the persistence of any High periods of electron flux is still rather low however. 

The associated 24 hour high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout, but likely at higher levels than seen of late. MOSWOC REFM is currently representing the observed fluence adequately, showing a plausible upward then variable trend in the upcoming days, keeping fluence below Active levels.