MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-19T00:17:29
Electron Flux is expected to be at Moderate to High levels over the next few days, as the fast winds of CH08/- continue to wane and electrons relax back into their usual orbits within the Van Allen belts.
Associated Electron Fluence levels are expected to gradually rise with an increasing Likelihood of reaching the Active threshold through days 1 to 3 (19 to 21 Dec), however confidence lowers by day 4 (22 Dec) with the anticipated arrival of the next coronal hole fast wind.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-12-19T00:17:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |