Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-13T00:19:18

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is at background to moderate levels. Flux is likely to remain mostly subdued until after the onset of any fast winds from CH06/-, after which there is the increasing potential for more prolonged periods of High flux to occur, but most likely from day 3 (14 Dec). 

The associated 24 hour fluence will most likely persist below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a slight chance of rising above by the end of the period. Predominately below Active fluence is generally supported by MOSWOC REFM, although this model is showing a short-term increase that is not expected. This is due to the limitations it has with not being able to tell the difference between CME arrivals and fast wind onsets.