Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-04T13:23:55

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux was previously High until the arrival of the combination of the X1 flare CME and fats winds of coronal hole 04, sharply dropping to Moderate to Background from 03/1845UTC. Similar conditions are expected initially, with electron flux remaining Moderate to Background. As the fast winds of coronal 04 give way to weaker fast winds of coronal hole 05 around day 3 (06 Dec) electron flux may once again begin to rise to diurnally High after the subsequent charging from coronal hole fast winds and relaxation of the Van Allen belts. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is below Active (above 1e8 integrate pfu) and is expected to continue on a decreasing trend through day 1 into day 2 (04/05 Dec). An increasing Chance of Active fluence is then predicted through days 3 and 4 (06/07 Dec), similar to what was observed on the previous rotation as recurrence.