Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-09T12:03:35

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is currently Moderate, having recovered slightly at GEO after the recent CME arrivals. An erratic increase in the peak flux is likely, bringing periods of High at diurnal maximum. However, further CME arrivals are possible which are likely to bring periods of drop out, and alongside uncertainties over how much charging has occurred due to the recent fast solar winds and geomagnetic activity, the longevity of these high periods remaining low confidence.

The associated 24 hr fluence is likely to have a rising trend, however given the potential for further CME influence it is considered unlikely that it will reach the Active threshold, with only a slight chance by the end of day 2 (09 Nov). The rising trend is supported by MOSWOC REFM, however both this model and 27-day recurrence are considered to be overestimating the likely rise.